NPD's "Entertainment Trends in America" reports that nearly 80 percent of frequent moviegoers plan to go to the theater the same amount or more often than they did last year, despite news about a declining U.S. economy. Even among infrequent moviegoers (those who attend movies once or twice within three months) 57 percent plan to hold steady, or even increase, their attendance this year. (emphasis mine)

Taken from a sample of more than 11,000 consumers, the report notes certain factors that drive consumers to the movies:

The top reason cited by consumers who intend to go to the movies more often this year is the social experience of going with family, friends, or significant others (73 percent). Nearly half (48 percent) pointed to the overall "movie-theater experience" (e.g., large screen, sound systems, etc.) as a primary reason they like to watch movies in the theater.

Makes sense - and it's something we've been saying here quite a lot. Something else we've been saying - home entertainment technologies are not a threat to moviegoing. Movie theaters and home entertainment are complementary. People who love movies are promiscuous. They'll watch movies over and over and in many different ways.

According to NPD's report, frequent moviegoers are 20 percent more likely than the average movie-ticket buyer to purchase DVDs of recent theatrical releases. They are also 60 percent more likely to rent a movie downloaded from the Web, and 40 percent more likely to purchase a movie as a digital download.

We don't expect frisky movie-goers to confine their love solely to the movie theater. But we do believe in serial monogamy - the preservation of the theatrical release window. 

To sum up, the sky is not falling, movie theaters continue to not die. Will the Wall Street Journal report it? "Buehler...? Buehler...?"

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Betsy Schiffman, writing for Wired's Epicenter blog, does the digging that the Wall Street Journal neglected.

What is surprising is that the industry isn't showing signs of a slowdown. In fact, this may shape up to be the second consecutive record-breaking summer at the box office. To some extent, inflation helps explain the phenomenon (rising prices drives up box office grosses), but that doesn't explain strong attendance numbers.

In actually researching the story that the Journal couldn't be bothered with, Schiffman went to the trouble of contacting NATO for our reaction to the story. I link to her story not only because yours truly is extensively quoted, but because Betsy Schiffman did what reporters are paid to do: get both sides of the story.

So don't ignore the Journal article because I think it's one-sided and inaccurate. Read it. Then read the Wired post and The Reel Blog post commenting on the Journal article. Agree or dsagree, at least you'll have enough information to come to a sensible conclusion.

A commenter on the Epicenter blog notes that ticket prices in Southern California run @ $10.50. This is generally the case for an adult admission at prime movie-going times. You can go for much less at a matinee and in areas outside the big cities. The average ticket prices cited historically were derived in the same way - the $2.23 average price from 1977 ($8.03 adjusted for inflation) was not the top ticket price then,  just the average. The same kind of gap betwen the top price you would pay in 1977 and the average price existed then, too.

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Before getting outside the box office, they get right into it:

THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER: Will summer 2008 set another new boxoffice record?

CAMPBELL: We have a strong slate of films this summer, but what you’re missing is what I’d call the three money-in-the bank films you saw last year in May. There’s a lot of diversity in product this summer, but will it be a record summer? I can’t say that.

FITHIAN: This year we have a few more unknowns. Some of those will surprise on the upside and some on the downside.

THR: And the year?

CAMPBELL: What I would say about the fourth quarter is that last year that was our weakest quarter, so on a comparable basis I think there’s more powerful product in that quarter of this year.

FITHIAN: I don’t disagree at all. I think it’s also important to remember we are coming off two up years in a row.

 On ratings:

THR: Exhibitors tend to like less restrictive ratings, yet there continues to be a regular flow of R-rated movies. Are you OK with that?

CAMPBELL: From a selfish, economic point of view as an exhibitor, we do better with PG and PG-13 films, and on any given year you generally see 17 or 18 of the top 20 films as PG or PG-13. There is still a place for R-rated films, but we do better at the boxoffice and at the concessions with PG and PG-13 films.

FITHIAN: I am mystified why everybody in Hollywood wants to be Quentin Tarantino instead of trying to sell movie tickets.

 
THR: Any other specific advice for Hollywood on the kind of pictures they should make?

FITHIAN: More family titles of any genre. When you take an action film and decided to make it PG-13 instead of R, it does better. And in most cases, if you have a comedy and decide to make it PG-13 it does better, although there certainly is a role for the harder-edge comedies as well. But as the father of a 5-year-old, there are times I am looking to go to the movies with my child and can’t.

Year-round movie-going: 

THR: You like to encourage “ 12-month releasing.” Isn’t there a limit to how many tentpoles can open while school is in session?

FITHIAN: Yes, but we’re still doing it wrong. Virtually every school in the country is still in session the first weekend in May, and the biggest movies in 2007 were released over the first weekend in May. Yet we leave April almost entirely off the table, and the circumstances of school are very similar in April and May.

There are only so many blockbusters you can tolerate in the year, but in summer when they are so close together we are losing money. With those huge titles last May, we lost— in my estimation —$50 million$100 million because we had them all in one month. If one of those had been in April, I think we would have made a lot more money.

CAMPBELL: We could increase the boxoffice several percentage points by having a release schedule that was spread a little more evenly.

Read the rest here. 

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It comes as no surprise to theater owners that hard times send people to movie theaters. Movie-going remains the least expensive form of out-of-home entertainment, as these charts show:

But wait, there's more, considering your ticket dollar in terms of time spent:

Source: ¹Intl’ Laser Tag Assn.    

Source: ²United States Bowling Congress / Mischel & Co. (ave. price/open game)

Source: ³NATO

The L.A. Times weighs in with the tantalizing suggestion, " If you're struggling to pay the bills, why not let Angelina Jolie take your worries away?"

Marketplace follows with an on-air interview on the subject with yours truly.

 And the Times of London speculates on the forthcoming summer season with an economy in the doldrums:

“In the past four decades there have been seven recession years in this country, and box office climbed strongly in five of those years,” said John Fithian, the president of the National Association of Theatre Owners.

“Consumers cut back on expensive purchases during recessions but also typically shift what discretionary spending money they have left to affordable activities, such as going to the movies.” This economic anomaly was first observed during the Great Depression, when even the Dust Bowl refugees used what little money they had to pay for admissions to monster movies and Marx Brothers comedies.

 Let us know: where will you be spending your money this summer?

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Week in and week out, Projector exposes the often-bitter truth about Hollywood. On one point, though, he must back the industry line with gusto. Call Projector creaky, but nothing matches the moviegoing experience or offers a better entertainment value. Consider:

* Since Projector lined up with a horde of other freckly nerds for the original "Star Wars" in 1977, when the average U.S. movie ticket cost $2.23, the price of admission has climbed less than the rate of inflation. That same ticket, in today's dollars, would cost $7.86 -- or well above the latest norm of $6.88. These averages include rural theaters and matinee, senior and child discounts; in L.A., the price of movies, like almost everything else, runs higher.

* Contrary to the whiny drumbeat of the nostalgia crowd, the product is as good as ever, especially for those who look beyond the top of the box-office charts. Projector's recent favorites include "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Bourne Ultimatum," "Juno" and "The Bank Job."

* Theater owners have crowed for years about what a bargain movies are compared with such events as concerts, which in 2007 commanded $62.07 for the average ticket, and baseball games, which went for $22.77. This spring the exhibitors' trade group, the National Assn. of Theatre Owners, calculated that watching films also costs less per minute than laser tag and bowling -- even if fans don't get the opportunity to rent those cool shoes.

Best of all, Friedman doesn't just take NATO's word for it. He takes the Times' money and actually checks it out. 

The price of fun
On a recent date night, a couple spent $31.25 at the movies -- excluding baby-sitting and other costs. How does that compare with other entertainment options?

* Baseball game at Dodger Stadium: Two infield reserve tickets, plus online "convenience charges," parking, hot dogs and sodas. Tab: $100.50

* Laser tag at Ultrazone in Sherman Oaks: Two $23 "unlimited game" packages on a Friday night, plus pregame Red Bulls. Tab: $50.78

* Marty & Elayne at the Dresden restaurant in Los Feliz: Dinner for two (pepper steaks with Caesar salad or French onion soup), followed by cocktails (Blood and Sands) at the piano lounge, with tax and tips. Tab: $111.94

* Paint ball at Warped Paintball Park in Castaic: Two basic packages on a weekend afternoon, including goggles, compressed air and Tippman 98 semiautomatic paint ball guns. Tab: $90

Read it all. The man loves him some movies and turns in a fun and funny article.

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Some industry analysts, including Hal Vogel of Vogel Capital Management, dispute the link between economic pullbacks and rising movie attendance. But for me, the evidence is strong:

• In 1974 and 1975, as the economy contracted 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, after 5.8% growth in 1973, the annual box-office take rose 25% and 11% as Americans sought refuge from reality in hits like "Jaws," "The Towering Inferno" and "Blazing Saddles." Movie-theater attendance rose 16.9% in 1974 and 2.2% in 1975.

• In 1982, the economy contracted 1.9%, after 2.5% growth in 1981. Box-office takes shot up 16.4% as hits such as "E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial" and "Porky's" offered escapes. The number of moviegoers was up 10%.

• In 2001, economic growth slowed to 0.8% from 2000's 2.7%, but box-office spending on movies such as "Monsters, Inc.," "The Mummy Returns" and "Ocean's Eleven" rose 9%. This was also the year the "Harry Potter" and "Lord of the Rings" film franchises were launched. Then, the box-office take rose 14% in 2002 as economic weakness lingered, growing only 1.6%. Movie-theater attendance went up 4% in 2001 and 11% in 2002.

All told, box-office spending went up during five out of the seven recessions or pullbacks over the past 40 years, according to the National Association of Theatre Owners. The pattern is so consistent that you can't write it off by saying moviemakers just happened to release better films.

If it is not the particular mix of films that accounts for the upswing in box office during recessions, what does? Sony's Jeff Blake suggests

"Movies offer something completely separate from what you are dealing with day to day. So they really become worth the money when money counts."

Lionsgate's Michael Burns concurs, saying

"When things are tough it is nice to be able to go into a dark theater and get lost in great entertainment, to be moved or scared and all those great things."

So weigh in if you're so inclined. Why do movies do well in bad economies? Is it the movies? The price? A desperate need to escape a stack of bills on the kitchen table?

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Click the image to watch CNN's Brooke Anderson report on why movie theaters do well in recessions. Interviews with NATO President and CEO John Fithian and Media by Numbers' Paul Degarabedian are included. 

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 A great article in NATO's former magazine, In Focus, covers the problems and prospects for alcohol service in the cinema.

Meanwhile, Fox Business Channel interviews yours truly about luxury cinema:

And Fox News talks with us about alcohol service:

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According to Variety, Disney intends to extend the one week limited release another week, and possibly two in some markets.

The weekend, aided by strong grosses from Oscar nominees, was up 37% over the same weekend last year. It is the seventh consecutive up weekend. YTD box office is running 19% ahead of 2007 and admissions are up approximately 13%.

 So is 3D for real? It is this weekend.

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